CoreLogic: Data Reveals Wildfires Pose Big Risk to Nearly 900,000
 Western US Homes in 2015; California, Colorado and Texas contain the most homes at risk

According to new data released Thursday, Feb. 26, 2015  by CoreLogic, nearly 900,000 single-family homes across 13 states in the western U.S. are currently designated at "High" or "Very High" risk for wildfire damage, representing a combined total reconstruction value estimated at more than $237 billion. Of the total homes identified, just over 192,000 homes fall into the "Very High Risk" category alone, with total reconstruction cost valued at more than $49.6 billion.

The CoreLogic Wildfire Risk analysis designates risk levels as "Very High,""High,""Moderate" and "Low." Two additional categories, "Urban" and "Agriculture" indicate homes at even lower risk. Homes designated as "Urban" are located in areas with a dense concentration of buildings and infrastructure to such an extent that little natural vegetation exists to support a wildfire. Homes designated as "Agriculture" are located in areas comprised of row crops, orchards/vineyards or other specific land use that is typically irrigated. Even if it is not irrigated, the crops are nourished and healthy with no ground litter present, and therefore, the vegetation is unlikely to support or enhance a wildfire.

The analysis also assigns a numeric risk score to each property, ranging from 1 to 100. This separate score indicates the level of susceptibility to wildfire, as well as the risk associated with the property being located in close proximity to another high-risk property or area. The score designation is important since wildfire can easily expand to adjacent properties and cause significant damage even if that property was not originally considered high risk. When expanding the analysis to include the numeric score, more than 1.1 million homes fall under the highest Wildfire Risk Score segment (81-100), representing a combined potential reconstruction value of more than $268.5 billion

Total U.S. Properties at Risk and Reconstruction Values by Risk Category
Wildfire Risk Level
Total Properties
Reconstruction Cost
Very High
192,242
$49,608,484,867
High
704,860
$187,661,388,760
Moderate
1,351,313
$292,811,373,342
Low
1,378,104
$334,120,053,463
Agriculture
993,580
$244,167,729,666
Urban
23,778,799
$6,094,873,170,789
Total:
28,398,898
$7,203,242,200,887

Total U.S. Properties at Risk and Reconstruction Values by Numeric Risk Score
(1-100)
Total Properties
Reconstruction Cost
81-100
1,101,131
$268,549,008,333
61-80
1,193,814
$338,395,410,748
51-60
487,013
$131,081,392,801
1-50
25,616,940
$6,465,216,389,005
Total:
28,398,898
$7,203,242,200,887

The states most commonly associated with wildfires also contain the most properties at risk – California, Colorado and Texas have the largest number of residential properties categorized as "Very High Risk," with a combined reconstruction value exceeding $36 billion. Including homes located in the "High Risk" category, the reconstruction value is more than $188 billion for these three states. When analyzed by risk score, 816,515 homes with reconstruction costs valued at more than $206.5 billion fall into the highest risk segment of 81-100.

Limiting the evaluation to property-level risk strictly in the "Very High" category, California tops the list of states analyzed with a total of 50,905 homes falling into that group. Comparatively, when assigning the Wildfire Risk Score, Texas takes the top spot with 451,848 homes scoring in the 81-100 highest-risk range.

Total Properties at Risk by State and Risk Category
State
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Agriculture
Urban
Total
AZ
43,273
4,443
8,488
8,089
5,332
1,910,771
1,980,396
CA
221,104
169,468
255,023
50,905
146,013
8,208,625
9,051,138
CO
70,935
38,628
50,009
49,667
66,876
1,482,352
1,758,467
ID
37,352
22,968
15,197
11,078
86,542
384,018
557,155
MT
60,588
18,903
9,601
10,218
22,516
194,927
316,753
NV
17,845
20,520
8,653
281
3,166
816,975
867,440
NM
55,969
19,554
25,766
9,481
16,200
483,282
610,252
OK
165,009
88,642
187
0
33,225
968,210
1,255,273
OR
37,137
41,160
51,872
13,788
157,749
938,664
1,240,370
TX
332,766
829,457
261,855
35,016
175,691
5,960,221
7,595,006
UT
11,185
13,590
3,441
68
31,825
681,016
741,125
WA
308,066
72,069
12,509
1,997
219,334
1,625,394
2,239,369
WY
16,875
11,911
2,259
1,654
29,111
124,344
186,154
Total
1,378,104
1,351,313
704,860
192,242
993,580
23,778,799
28,398,898

Reconstruction Values by State and Risk Category
State
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Agriculture
Urban
Total
AZ
$9,641,256,308
$976,410,271
$1,758,550,435
$1,572,563,175
$1,143,819,360
$366,495,664,312
$381,588,263,861
CA
$75,842,726,208
$61,916,244,431
$89,354,295,530
$16,103,052,587
$49,993,071,641
$2,787,437,974,226
$3,080,650,364,623
CO
$18,625,174,701
$11,531,765,722
$14,580,510,822
$13,914,663,160
$17,325,198,320
$341,298,432,193
$417,275,744,918
ID
$9,201,487,848
$5,563,694,301
$3,712,505,829
$2,620,564,770
$19,821,299,748
$81,602,075,191
$122,521,627,687
MT
$14,629,451,956
$4,430,244,606
$2,287,179,138
$2,395,322,719
$5,408,564,612
$40,511,274,596
$69,662,037,627
NV
$4,236,711,357
$5,193,363,455
$4,565,346,511
$164,097,900
$804,282,891
$209,146,367,671
$224,110,169,785
NM
$11,654,726,259
$4,622,802,292
$7,067,786,311
$2,461,741,365
$3,238,850,020
$98,567,625,878
$127,613,532,125
OK
$31,924,967,489
$16,773,531,745
$32,840,233
$0
$6,781,088,763
$175,933,722,480
$231,446,150,710
OR
$8,237,043,811
$9,489,672,570
$11,913,602,274
$3,198,334,352
$37,257,178,708
$213,002,484,645
$283,095,316,360
TX
$59,531,714,789
$147,682,544,644
$48,259,080,738
$6,333,237,927
$32,857,921,476
$1,201,265,765,342
$1,495,930,264,916
UT
$2,849,584,240
$3,928,155,203
$768,151,716
$14,155,093
$8,343,607,261
$157,244,129,873
$173,147,783,386
WA
$84,067,607,674
$18,078,389,368
$2,876,053,207
$505,435,568
$54,701,823,116
$397,645,668,540
$557,874,977,473
WY
$3,677,600,823
$2,624,554,734
$485,486,016
$325,316,251
$6,491,023,750
$24,721,985,842
$38,325,967,416
Total
$334,120,053,463
$292,811,373,342
$187,661,388,760
$49,608,484,867
$244,167,729,666
$6,094,873,170,789
$7,203,242,200,887

Total Properties at Risk by State and Numerical Risk Score
State
1-50
51-60
61-80
81-100
Total
AZ
1,919,351
14,308
27,159
19,578
1,980,396
CA
8,286,708
133,654
367,457
263,319
9,051,138
CO
1,454,787
52,823
122,509
128,348
1,758,467
ID
476,310
9,554
27,868
43,423
557,155
MT
243,990
13,114
27,301
32,348
316,753
NV
848,682
2,337
9,184
7,237
867,440
NM
523,755
14,487
32,139
39,871
610,252
OK
1,250,888
1,431
2,219
735
1,255,273
OR
1,091,300
22,616
46,655
79,799
1,240,370
TX
6,458,363
197,548
487,247
451,848
7,595,006
UT
693,256
14,713
24,311
8,845
741,125
WA
2,192,567
8,662
17,001
21,139
2,239,369
WY
176,983
1,766
2,764
4,641
186,154
Total
25,616,940
487,013
1,193,814
1,101,131
28,398,898

Reconstruction Values by State and Numerical Risk Score
State
1-50
51-60
61-80
81-100
Total
AZ
$369,191,090,202
$2,781,562,044
$5,612,822,008
$4,002,789,607
$381,588,263,861
CA
$2,785,871,424,591
$53,258,974,686
$153,067,995,013
$88,448,970,333
$3,080,647,364,623
CO
$333,552,521,110
$13,769,558,737
$33,846,313,158
$36,107,351,913
$417,275,744,918
ID
$102,894,072,845
$2,426,687,082
$6,899,872,812
$10,300,994,948
$122,521,627,687
MT
$52,685,950,526
$2,997,541,855
$6,338,603,322
$7,639,941,924
$69,662,037,627
NV
$216,436,292,731
$624,126,373
$3,860,921,144
$3,188,829,537
$224,110,169,785
NM
$105,891,175,664
$3,334,262,905
$7,919,619,903
$10,468,473,653
$127,613,532,125
OK
$230,716,181,496
$235,452,854
$370,084,424
$124,431,936
$231,446,150,710
OR
$248,596,738,298
$5,247,235,235
$11,061,921,922
$18,192,420,905
$283,098,316,360
TX
$1,276,614,038,497
$39,753,699,730
$97,535,512,589
$82,027,014,100
$1,495,930,264,916
UT
$159,359,659,455
$4,309,214,977
$7,363,299,947
$2,115,609,007
$173,147,783,386
WA
$547,066,785,312
$1,964,631,216
$3,905,374,051
$4,938,186,894
$557,874,977,473
WY
$36,340,458,278
$378,445,107
$613,070,455
$993,993,576
$38,325,967,416
Total
$6,465,216,389,005
$131,081,392,801
$338,395,410,748
$268,549,008,333
$7,203,242,200,887

At the CBSA (Core Based Statistical Area) level, Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo. ranks first for the most number of homes at "Very High" risk out of the 258 CBSAs analyzed. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. comes in a close second, followed by Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, Calif.

When ranking CBSAs based on Wildfire Risk Score, Riverside-San-Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. takes the top spot for the most number of homes that fall under the highest risk segment of 81-100, followed by Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, Calif. and Austin-Round Rock, Texas.

Top 10 CBSAs Ranked by Homes at Very High Risk
CBSA
Very High # Homes
Home Reconstruction Value
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
17,860
$5,358,513,217
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
14,249
$4,233,998,840
Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA
9,698
$3,351,781,562
Bend-Redmond, OR
9,128
$2,328,466,791
Colorado Springs, CO
7,296
$2,086,189,220
Durango, CO
6,052
$1,776,710,340
Fort Collins, CO
4,609
$903,336,600
Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
4,569
$1,430,020,245
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
4,219
$917,157,644
Flagstaff, AZ
4,109
$753,176,500

Top 10 CBSAs Ranked by Numerical Risk Score
CBSA
81-100 Risk Score
Home Reconstruction Value
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
50,605
$14,805,549,511
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, CA
42,042
$15,875,023,943
Austin-Round Rock, TX
35,807
$9,019,956,767
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
35,174
$10,807,628,461
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
31,350
$7,097,211,479
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
17,006
$8,654,562,030
Chico, CA
15,103
$3,754,593,902
Colorado Springs, CO
14,990
$4,408,080,237
Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
14,671
$4,945,547,724
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
14,092
$3,063,417,604


*Additional CBSA-level data may be available upon request.
To enhance accuracy, this CoreLogic wildfire analysis has been expanded from prior annual analyses to encompass additional categories of single-family residential structures including mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins, among other non-traditional home types. The values represent estimates of reconstruction costs, taking into account labor and materials, and are based on 100-percent or total destruction of the residential structure. Depending upon the size of the wildfire, there may be less than 100-percent damage to the residence, which would result in a lower realized reconstruction cost.


About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, based in Irvine, CA. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.5billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.


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