TransUnion: U.S. Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rate Q1 2013 Shows Largest Quarterly and Yearly Drops on Record; First Major Decline Since Housing Crisis Began

Since last quarter, the mortgage delinquency rate declined 12%. Both on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis, this is the best improvement in mortgage delinquency since TransUnion began observing the data point in 1992. 

 "We are pleased to report that the national mortgage delinquency rate experienced its first major decline since the advent of the housing crisis," said Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S. Housing in TransUnion's financial services business unit. "We certainly expected improvement this quarter, as the housing sector is in recovery, but the magnitude of the improvement was unexpected."

Every state and the District of Columbia experienced improvement in their mortgage delinquency rates from last year. While Arizona (-37.9%) and California (-36.6%) led the way once again in terms of mortgage delinquency improvement, other states also saw marked declines. These included Colorado (-28.5%), Michigan (-28.1%) and Minnesota (-25.7%). Florida, one of the hardest hit states by the housing crisis, also saw a 20.7% yearly decline.

At a more granular level, 91.0% of MSAs experienced a yearly decline in their mortgage delinquency rate. This percentage was an improvement over the previous quarter when 81.4% of MSAs had a yearly drop in their mortgage delinquency rate. California was represented by 15 of the 25 MSAs that experienced the largest yearly mortgage delinquency declines. Notable California MSAs include: San Jose (-44.3%), San Francisco (-39.2%), San Diego (-38.4%) and Sacramento (-36.6%).

"The housing sector as a whole has definitely been improving with prices up, negative equity down and rates staying low," Martin said. "That seems to have helped borrowers this quarter, some of whom have been delinquent for a rather long time, work their way out of the system at a faster pace."

TransUnion expects the mortgage delinquency rate to continue its downward trend in the second quarter of 2013, finishing near 4.5%. 

"There is no reason to believe the decline in mortgage delinquencies will not continue," said Martin. "All housing data point to further improvements in the delinquency rate, though as in the past few years, this also will hinge on how quickly older vintage loans clear through the system. We do not know if the first quarter was a blip, or if it's the beginning of a more rapid decline." 

This information is reported by TransUnion and is part of its ongoing series of quarterly analyses of credit-active U.S. consumers and how they are managing credit related to mortgages, credit cards and auto loans.

TransUnion's forecast is based on various economic assumptions, such as gross state product, consumer sentiment, unemployment rates, real personal income, and real estate values. The forecast would change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy affecting recovery in the housing market or if home prices fall more than expected

Q1 2013 Mortgage Statistics - Delinquency Rates

Q1 2013 Mortgage Statistics - Mortgage Debt Per Borrower