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CASE-SHILLER INDICES: Home Prices Continue Climbing in June 2013
All 20 cities posted gains on a monthly and annual basis. However, in only six cities were prices rising faster this month than last, compared to ten in May. Dallas and Denver reached new all-time highs as they did last month, with returns of +1.7% each in June. San Francisco’s rebound is the largest, up 47.0% from its low in March 2009. Phoenix is second, 37.1% above its September 2011 low.
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 10.1% gain in the second quarter of 2013 over the second quarter of 2012. In June 2013, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual increases of 11.9% and 12.1%, respectively.
“National home prices rose more than 10% annually in each of the last two quarters,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, the monthly city by city data show the pace of price increases is moderating.
“The Southwest and California have consistently led the recovery with Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco posting at least 15 months of gains. Looking at the cities, New York recorded its highest monthly return since 2002. Atlanta was up the most at +3.4% and Washington DC had the lowest return at +1.0%. In terms of annual rates of change, San Francisco lost its leadership position with Las Vegas showing the highest post-recession gain of 24.9%.
“Overall, the report shows that housing prices are rising but the pace may be slowing. Thirteen out of twenty cities saw their returns weaken from May to June. As we are in the middle of a seasonal buying period, we should expect to see the most gains. With interest rates rising to almost 4.6%, home buyers may be discouraged and sharp increases may be dampened.
“Other housing news is positive, but not as robust as last spring. Starts and sales of new homes continue to lag the stronger pace set by existing homes. Despite recent increases in mortgage interest rates, affordability is still good as credit qualifications have eased somewhat.”
As of the second quarter of 2013, average home prices across the United States are back at their early 2004 levels. At the end of the second quarter of 2013, the National Index was up 7.1% over the first quarter of 2013 and 10.1% above the second quarter of 2012.
Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 23%. The recovery from the March 2012 lows is 18.4% and 19.0% for the 10-City and 20-City Composites.
All 20 cities showed positive monthly returns for at least the third consecutive month. Six cities – Charlotte, Cleveland, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, New York and Tampa – showed acceleration. Atlanta took the lead with a return of 3.4% as San Francisco dropped to +2.7% in June from +4.3% in May. New York posted a gain of 2.1%, its highest since July 2002.
Year-over-year, Las Vegas and San Francisco were the only two MSAs to post gains of over 20%; Atlanta, Detroit and Phoenix decreased to +19.0%, +16.4% and +19.8%, respectively. Seven cities – Dallas, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego and Tampa – showed improvement in their annual rates. Out of the 13 remaining MSAs, Detroit showed the most deceleration but it still posted an impressive 16.4% increase. Despite gaining 35.6% from its post-recession low in April 2011, Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 level.
More than 26 years of history for these data series are available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market may also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.