CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased by Less Than 1 Percent Month Over Month in October

CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading residential property information, analytics and services provider, on Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2013 released its October CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) report that shows -- on a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales -- home prices increased by only 0.2 percent in October 2013 compared to September 2013*. Year over year, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 12.5 percent in October 2013 compared to October 2012. This change represents the 20th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices nationally.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.4 percent month over month in October 2013 compared to September 2013. On a year-over-year basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 11 percent in October 2013 compared to October 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real-estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that November 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to remain at the same level month over month as October 2013, with a projected increase of 12.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2012. Excluding distressed sales, November 2013 home prices are poised to rise just 0.4 percent month over month from October 2013 and 11.3 percent year over year from November 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.

"In October, the year-over-year appreciation rate remained strong, but the month-over-month appreciation rate was barely positive, indicating that house price appreciation has slowed as expected for the winter," said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, Irvine, CA. "Based on our pending HPI, the monthly growth rate is expected to moderate even further in November and December. The slowdown in price appreciation is positive for the housing market as almost half the states are now within 10 percent of their respective historical price peaks."

"In terms of home price appreciation, the housing market appears to be catching its breath as we head into the final months of 2013," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "The deceleration in month-on-month trends was anticipated as strong gains in home prices over the spring and summer slow in line with normal seasonal patterns and the impact of higher mortgage interest rates."

Highlights as of October 2013:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+25.9 percent), California (+22.4 percent), Georgia (+14.2 percent), Michigan (+14.1 percent) and Arizona (+14 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, the only state to show depreciation was New Mexico (-0.5 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+22.5 percent), California (+18.5 percent), Utah (+13.3 percent), Florida (+13 percent) and New York (+12.4 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in October.
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to October 2013) was -17.3 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -13.1 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-40.7 percent), Florida (-37.4 percent), Arizona (-31.5 percent), Rhode Island (-29.3 percent) and West Virginia (-28 percent).
  • 96 of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in October 2013**.

*September data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results. 
**The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued a bulletin on February 28, 2013, establishing revised Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) delineations. With today's release of HPI, these new delineations are now reflected in the data.

October HPI for the Country's Largest CBSAs by Population (Ranked by Single-Family Including Distressed):

CBSAOctober 2013 12-Month HPI
Change by CBSA
Single-Family Including DistressedSingle-Family Excluding Distressed
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 24.1% 21.9%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 22.1% 19.0%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 16.4% 13.6%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 15.9% 13.7%
Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL 12.3% 11.7%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 10.9% 11.2%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 10.3% 9.8%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 9.7% 9.3%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 9.2% 9.0%
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ 9.1% 9.2%

Source: CoreLogic.

October National and State HPI (Ranked by Single-Family Including Distressed):

StateOctober 2013 12-Month HPI
Change by State
Single-Family Including DistressedSingle-Family Excluding Distressed
National 12.5% 11.0%
Nevada 25.9% 22.5%
California 22.4% 18.5%
Georgia 14.2% 11.9%
Michigan 14.1% 11.1%
Arizona 14.0% 12.1%
Oregon 13.3% 11.9%
Florida 12.8% 13.0%
New York 12.5% 12.4%
Hawaii 12.2% 9.9%
Idaho 11.9% 12.1%
Utah 11.8% 13.3%
Washington 11.7% 12.2%
South Carolina 10.8% 9.2%
Massachusetts 9.8% 9.1%
Illinois 9.7% 9.2%
Colorado 9.1% 8.4%
Wyoming 9.0% 4.8%
Minnesota 8.7% 8.5%
Texas 8.1% 8.6%
South Dakota 7.7% 7.9%
District of Columbia 7.5% 6.8%
Virginia 7.4% 7.8%
Montana 7.3% 6.9%
Missouri 7.1% 6.1%
Rhode Island 7.0% 7.2%
North Dakota 7.0% 4.0%
Tennessee 6.8% 6.5%
Maine 6.7% 6.0%
Maryland 6.0% 6.7%
North Carolina 5.7% 7.0%
New Hampshire 5.4% 4.5%
New Jersey 5.2% 5.5%
Vermont 5.0% 5.0%
Alaska 4.8% 4.9%
Delaware 3.9% 3.8%
Indiana 3.7% 3.9%
Pennsylvania 3.5% 3.8%
Nebraska 3.4% 3.2%
Kansas 3.1% 6.5%
Wisconsin 3.0% 3.7%
Alabama 3.0% 8.2%
Iowa 2.8% 3.5%
Ohio 2.8% 4.2%
West Virginia 2.7% 7.5%
Oklahoma 2.6% 3.7%
Connecticut 2.4% 4.7%
Mississippi 1.9% 6.0%
Louisiana 1.8% 2.7%
Kentucky 1.1% 3.2%
Arkansas 0.4% 3.1%
New Mexico -0.5% 3.1%

Source: CoreLogic.


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