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CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes Point to Most Rapid Rate of U.S. Housing Market Appreciation Since 2006
The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes estimate that home prices increased by 11.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to a year ago. Home prices nationwide were 17 percent above the trough reached in the fourth quarter of 2011, but remained 23 percent below the peak reached in the first quarter of 2006. The analysis projects that price appreciation is expected to slow to 4.2 percent nationally through the third quarter of 2014 across all U.S. markets, close to its long-term annual average of 4.5 percent recorded since 1975.
"Investor demand and sales of foreclosed properties are dropping quickly," said Dr. David Stiff, principal economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller. "This is especially true in states that were caught up early in the bubble and have non-judicial foreclosure proceedings, such as California and Arizona. In these states, inventories of bank-owned properties are close to being cleared. Non-investor demand, although increasing, will not replace demand from investors."
The large metro areas, defined as those with populations greater than 950,000, that experienced the most rapid appreciation rates on a year-over-year basis compared to third quarter 2012 were Las Vegas (+30 percent), Sacramento (+27 percent) and Riverside, Calif. (+26 percent). The large metro areas with the slowest appreciation rates were Philadelphia (+3 percent), Hartford, Conn (+3 percent) and New Orleans (+3 percent).
"Double-digit price gains are unlikely to persist, but since housing is far more affordable now than it was in 2006, there is less concern that a new housing bubble will occur. As of the third quarter of 2013, the ratio of median mortgage payment to median family income was at a 40-year low and 35 percent lower than it was at the peak of the bubble, even after accounting for recent increases in prices and mortgage interest rates," Dr. Stiff said.
Metro areas with large projected year-over-year gains through the third quarter of 2014 are Oakland, Calif. (+9 percent), New Orleans (+9 percent) and Fort Worth, Texas (+9 percent). The large metro areas with smaller projected gains are Nashville, Tenn. (+2), Orlando, Fla. (+3 percent) and Jacksonville, Fla. (+3 percent).
The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes are owned and generated by CoreLogic. The historical home price trend information in this report is calculated from the proprietary CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, supplemented with data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). One-year forecasts in this release are for the 12 months ending on Sept. 30, 2014. CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price forecasts are produced by CoreLogic and
*This quarterly report differs from the S&P/Dow Jones Case-Shiller monthly report. Although both reflect findings from the same dataset, this analysis includes local-level data for a greater number of markets over a different time frame. Additionally, this report differs from the monthly CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI©) report, which provides the most current indication of trends in home prices on a monthly basis.