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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Pace of Home Price Gains Slowed by Weather
“The housing recovery may have taken a breather due to the cold weather,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Twelve cities reported declining prices in January vs. December; eight of those were worse than the month before. From the bottom in 2012, prices are up 23% and the housing market is showing signs of moving forward with more normal price increases.
“The Sun Belt showed the five highest monthly returns. Las Vegas was the leader with an increase of 1.1% followed by Miami at +0.7%. San Diego showed its best January performance of 0.6% since 2004. San Francisco and Tampa trailed closely at +0.5% and +0.4%. Elsewhere, New York and Washington D.C. stood out as they continued to improve and posted their highest year-over-year returns since 2006. Dallas and Denver are the only cities to have reached new record peaks while Detroit remains the only city with home prices below those of 14 years ago.
“Expectations and recent data point to continued home price gains for 2014. Although most analysts do not expect the same rapid increases we saw last year, the consensus is for moderating gains. Existing home sales declined slightly in February and are at their lowest level since July 2012.”
The 10-City Composite showed a slight uptick in its index level but remained relatively unchanged. The 20-City Composite, a broader measure of home prices, posted its third consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Twelve cities declined in January with Chicago decreasing 1.2%. Las Vegas led at +1.1% and posted its 22nd consecutive monthly gain. Despite recent advances, Las Vegas is still the farthest from its high set in August 2006 with a peak-to-current decline of 45%. Dallas and Denver are now less than 1% away from their recent all-time index highs.
In January 2014, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted year-over-year increases of 13.5% and 13.2%.
Las Vegas and San Francisco remain the only two cities posting annual gains of over 20%. San Diego showed the most improvement with a year-over-year return of 19.4% in January from 18.0% in December. Phoenix saw its annual rate decelerate the most; the city’s return peaked last January when it led all 20 cities by a wide margin.
Only seven cities – Las Vegas, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Tampa and Washington – showed positive monthly returns in January. Chicago and Seattle declined the most and posted their fourth consecutive drop in average home prices. Although Cleveland continued its decline, it showed the most improvement with -1.5% in December to -0.3% in January.
More than 27 years of history for these data series are available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market may also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.
Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
For more information: www.spdji.com.