FNC Index: Home Prices Pick Up Momentum

As of June, foreclosure sales have dropped to their lowest levels since November 2007. Of total existing home sales, about 11.7% are final sales of foreclosed homes, down from 12.5% in May and 13.9% a year ago. The for-sale markets are leading with signs of continued improvement in liquidity. June’s asking price discount was 2.0% on average, down from 2.2% in May. Median time-on-market dropped quickly from 102 days in May to 91 days in June.

FNC’s RPI is the mortgage industry’s first hedonic price index built on a comprehensive database that blends public records of residential sales prices with real-time appraisals of property and neighborhood attributes. As a gauge of underlying home values, the RPI excludes final sales of REO and foreclosed homes, which are frequently sold with large price discounts, likely reflecting poor property conditions. 1

Based on recorded sales of non-distressed properties (existing and new homes) in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, the FNC national composite index shows that May home prices  jumped at a seasonally unadjusted rate of 1.0% after relatively weak gains during the first National Composite.  The two narrower indices (30- and 10-MSA composites) show even larger price  improvement in the nation’s top housing markets, up 1.2% and 1.6% respectively. On an 10-MSA Composite annual basis, the indices’ year-over-year growth continues to decelerate after reaching a peak in February.

The majority of the component markets show sizable month-to-month price gain, led by New York (2.9%), Washington, D.C. (2.5%), and Miami, Riverside-CA, and Sacramento at 2.0% each. The price declines recorded in Dallas and Nashville are likely a result of short- term volatility in the data as there are no obvious signs of weakening housing fundamentals in those cities. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, and St. Louis home prices have not shown any measurable improvements since housing began to recover in the past two and half years. Meanwhile, annual price accelerations continue to moderate and the January 2012-to-date numbers continue to show a widening gap in the state of housing recovery nationwide.