Nov. 4, 2006
COMMENTARY: Global Warming Can No Longer be Ignored
By Sir Ronald Sanders
Special to Huntington News Network
A report, commissioned by the British government, from former World Bank
Chief Economist, Sir Nicholas Stern, has re-enforced the dire prospects for
the world if global warming is allowed to continue unchecked. This includes
costal cities in developed countries such as New York and Miami in the US
and London in the United Kingdom.
Sir Nicholas has warned that the human consequences of failing to act to
stop global warming will be serious.
The report says: “Millions will die from malnutrition, diarrhoea, malaria
and dengue fever unless effective controls are in place. There will be acute
risks all over the world from the Inuits in the Arctic to the inhabitants of
small islands in the Caribbean and Pacific”.
Sir Nicholas is a hard-nosed Economist, not an Environmentalist. Therefore,
there is no reason for suspecting a hidden agenda in his warning that the
world is in danger.
The 600-page report is quite a tome and it makes depressing reading for the
future of the world if temperatures continue to rise. Among the troubling
projections are:
• 200 million people are at risk of being driven from their homes by flood
or drought by 2050
• 60 million Africans could be exposed to Malaria if world temperatures rise
by 2°C
• 4 billion people could suffer from water shortages if temperatures rise by
2°C
If nothing is done about global warming the world economy would shrink by up
to 20 per cent, equating to a figure of almost US$2 trillion a year.
Developing countries would, of course, be hardest hit with poverty
increasing, disease spreading, trade worsening and hundreds of millions of
people dying.
However, Sir Nicholas points out that spending of just one per cent of GDP
per year, the equivalent of roughly US$90 billion annually in an
international effort could stabilise carbon emissions at 550 parts per
million.
The importance of stabilising the emissions is that once carbon dioxide is
emitted into the atmosphere it stays there and continues to warm the planet
for as long as century. Thus, everyday that the emissions increase global
warming is intensified and prolonged.
The report tells the Caribbean and Pacific countries nothing new when it
says that rising sea levels will pose serious risks and demand increasing
coastal protection. But, it makes the point that, in addition to small
islands, coastal cities such as New York and Miami in the US, Mumbai and
Calcutta in India, London in the UK and Honk Kong and Shanghai in China
would also be flooded.
Throughout the world, fish stocks would also be badly affected by Ocean
acidification, a direct result of rising carbon dioxide levels. In turn
this will not only affect the livelihood of fishermen, it will also cut the
food supply of people globally.
Dr Ulric Trotz, chief science advisor for the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)
Climate Change Centre, recently pointed out that, “warming of the Caribbean
Sea is impacting on the coral reefs which are an important resource for
livelihoods both for fishing and tourism”.
The evidence is compelling. For instance, much of the 200 miles of Belize's
coral reef has been "bleached" in the last decade and some scientists warn
it is likely to die, a victim of global warming.
According to Sir Nicholas Stern’s report, a rise of 1°C would bleach 80% of
coral reefs.
The Caribbean and Florida in the US already know very well the destructive
impact of hurricanes on buildings and infrastructure. It will get worse.
Infrastructure damage will rise sharply because of the combined effects of
more powerful storms from warmer ocean waters and the power of rising wind
speeds.
It is being hoped that Sir Nicholas’ authoritative report will have an
impact on the Bush administration US which withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol
- an international agreement setting targets for industrialised countries to
cut their greenhouse gas emissions which are considered at least partly
responsible for global warming.
Similarly, it is hoped that China and India will be influenced by the
report’s gloomy diagnosis.
The US emits more than 25 percent of the greenhouses gases in the world and
the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions is attributed to the fast
paced industrialisation programmes now underway in China and India. By
comparison, the Caribbean countries altogether produce less than 0.1 % of
greenhouse gases, and this figure is likely to increase only marginally.
There was a time when some countries pumped carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere to maintain their level of development at the expense of others
who suffered the backlash of hurricanes, flooding, and drought.
Sir Nicholas’ report shows that while developing countries will continue to
experience the greatest hardship, developed countries too will feel the
pain.
He calls for a high-degree of international cooperation to tackle this
global problem saying that the scale of the challenge makes it more urgent
for developed countries to honour their existing commitments to double aid
flows to developing countries by 2010.
The report declares that “strong growth and development will enhance
countries ability to adapt”.
This is an issue that should be given high priority on the agenda of
international and bilateral discussions between governments.
Certainly, the governments of the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries
which are now negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements with the European
Union (EU) should insist that global warming be placed on their agenda.
It should also be raised by Caribbean leaders with US President George Bush
as early as possible and it should be a high priority of the agenda for a
meeting planned with him for June 2007.
The problem of global warming is real, and Sir Nicholas and his team have
now itemized the economic impact. In every sense, global warming could cost
the earth.
Sir Ronald Sanders is a business executive and former Caribbean Ambassador to the World Trade Organisation who publishes widely on Small States in the global community. Responses to: ronaldsanders29@hotmail.com
