Nov. 6, 2008
Mortgage Applications Down 43.4% Year on Year
By David M. Kinchen
Huntingtonnews.net Real Estate Writer
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2008 released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 31, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 379.9, a decrease of 20.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 476.7 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 21.1 percent compared with the previous week and was down 43.4 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The Refinance Index decreased 27.8 percent to 1075.4 from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 13.9 percent to 260.9 from one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index decreased 14.4 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) decreased 12.8 percent.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 4.7 percent. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index is down 4.4 percent, while this average is down 4.9 percent for the Refinance Index.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 42.9 percent of total applications from 46.9 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 2.5 percent from 1.9 percent of total applications from the previous week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.47 percent from 6.26 percent, with points increasing to 1.19 from 1.10 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.14 percent from 6.01 percent, with points increasing to 1.22 from 1.15 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 6.86 percent from 6.90 percent, with points increasing to 0.42 from 0.21 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
The MBA also released its Mortgage Originations Survey on Nov. 5. The survey showed that borrowers who took out mortgages in the first half of 2008 showed a strong preference for fixed rate mortgage products due to a decrease in fixed mortgage rates and the continued tightening of lending standards.
In addition, the government share of originations more than doubled to 11.8 percent in the first half of 2008 compared to 5.7 percent in the second half of 2007. The government loans category includes loans guaranteed or insured by the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Federal Housing Administration and Rural Housing Service. The increase in the FHA loan limit, which broadened FHA financing for more borrowers, was one of the factors that contributed to the increased popularity of the FHA.
Other key findings from the survey (percentages are based on dollar volume of originated loans):
o The refinance share of all originations was 61.7 percent in the first half of 2008, compared to 54.8 percent in the second half of 2007. The percent of refinance originations for rate or term purposes increased from 38.1 percent in the second half of 2007 to 48.6 percent in the first half of 2008. The refinance volume also increased 5.8 percent in the first half of 2008, based on data from repeater companies, which are participants that responded to the survey in both halves.
o For first mortgages, fixed-rate loans, excluding IOs, accounted for 78.5 percent of the dollar volume of originated loans in the first half of 2008, compared to 63.6 percent in the second half of 2007.
o In the first half of 2008, 82.7 percent of all origination dollars were for prime loans, compared to 79.0 percent in the second half of 2007, 3.8 percent were non-prime, compared to 7.5 percent in the second half of 2007, and 1.7 percent were Alt-A, compared to 7.8 percent in the second half of 2007.
o Originations of mortgages with deferred amortization (“interest only” or “IO”) continued to decrease significantly for both fixed and adjustable rate products from the second half of 2007. IOs accounted for 10.6 percent of originations in the first half of 2008, compared to 22.4 percent in the second half of 2007.
o In the first half of 2008, first-time homebuyer purchases represented 29.9 percent of the volume of purchase originations, compared to 27.9 percent in the second half of 2007. They represented 32.2 percent of the number of purchase loans in the first half of 2008, compared to 30.2 percent in the second half of 2007.
Estimates from MBA’s Mortgage Finance Forecast further demonstrate the trends in originations as purchase originations were down by 16.2 percent in the first half of 2008 compared to the second half of 2007. Refinance originations were up 16.3 percent in the first half of 2008 compared to the second half of 2007.
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